A black swan is an unpredictable event beyond what is typically expected. It brings negative or positive consequences, characterized by extreme rarity, severe impact, and widespread assertions. Usually, it is a significant game-changer, altering the way markets and organizations operate.

In the face of a black swan, the “business as usual” approach is no longer possible. Major adjustments to the new circumstances are necessary. Significant technological disruption is an example of a black swan. Standard forecasting tools can fail to predict and potentially increase vulnerability to black swans by increasing risk and offering false security. Vulnerability to black swans depends on exposure to the shock, the sensitivity to it, and the ability to adjust.

Among black swans gathered by ABSL BI team were:

  • Political instability in Poland and deterioration of the investment climate
  • A major cyberattack/cyberwar/cybersecurity breach
  • Global economic/financial crisis
  • Trade wars/global economic conflicts
  • Polexit and/or other EU exits
  • The economic crisis in Poland
  • COVID-19 pandemic lasting longer than expected
  • A new pandemic
  • Local/global military conflict
  • The collapse of the EU/eurozone
  • Terrorist attack in Europe/Poland
  • Poland joining the eurozone
  • Financial/banking crisis in Poland

However, in our current context and as always in the case of unpredictable black swans, the mid – and long-term effects will unfold and could affect the direction and types of investment flows, location of activities, organization of activities within the sector, and the conduct of companies in the market. The shock has created an opportunity for M&A. Thus, we expect further consolidation in the global market.

Learn more about factors driving the growth of the industry and predictions for the sector for the next decade by purchasing Strategic Foresight in the business services sector 2021.